Related Papers
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The Worldwide C3S CORDEX Grand Ensemble: A Major Contribution to Assess Regional Climate Change in the IPCC AR6 Atlas
Fredolin Tangang
The collaboration between the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) provides open access to an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations, across the 14 CORDEX continental-scale domains, with global coverage. These simulations have been used as a new line of evidence to assess regional climate projections in the latest contribution of the Working Group I (WGI) to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), particularly in the regional chapters and the Atlas. Here, we present the work done in the framework of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to assemble a consistent worldwide CORDEX grand ensemble, aligned with the deadlines and activities of IPCC AR6. This work addressed the uneven and heterogeneous availability of CORDEX ESGF data by supporting publication in CORDEX domains with few archived simulations and performing quality control. It also addressed the lack of comprehensive docum...
Kurniadi et al.
Evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model-simulated extreme precipitation over Indonesia
2022 •
Ari Kurniadi
The ability of 42 global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), consisting of 20 low resolution (LR) and 22 medium resolution (MR), are evaluated for their performance in simulating mean and extreme precipitation over Indonesia. Compared to Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), the model climatologies and interannual variability are investigated individually and as multimodel ensemble means (MME-mean) at monthly and seasonal time scales for the historical simulation over the period 1988-2014. Overall, results show that both LR and MR CMIP6 model skills in simulating mean and extreme precipitation indices vary across specific Indonesian regions and seasons. The individual and MME-mean tend to overestimate the observed climatology, being largest over drier regions, yet MR models perform better compared to the LR regarding the mean bias presumably due to increased resolution. CMIP6 models tend to simulate extreme precipitation better in the dry seasons compared to the wet season. The MME-means of the LR and MR groups mostly outperform the individual models of each group in simulating wet extremes (R95p and Rx5d) but not for the dry extremes (CDD). Among the 42 CMIP6 models, three models consistently perform poorly in simulating Rx5d and R95p, namely FGOALS-g3, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and IPSL-CM6A-LR-INCA, and one model in consecutive dry day (CDD) simulation, MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM, and caution is warranted. Given the knowledge of such biases, the LR and MR CMIP6 climate models can be suitably applied to assist policy makers in their decision on climate change adaptation and mitigation action.
Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region
2020 •
Ashwini Kulkarni
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The CORDEX-CORE EXP-I Initiative: Description and Highlight Results from the Initial Analysis
2021 •
Daniela Jacob
We describe the first effort within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment–Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluation, or CORDEX-CORE EXP-I. It consists of a set of twenty-first-century projections with two regional climate models (RCMs) downscaling three global climate model (GCM) simulations from the CMIP5 program, for two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6), over nine CORDEX domains at ∼25-km grid spacing. Illustrative examples from the initial analysis of this ensemble are presented, covering a wide range of topics, such as added value of RCM nesting, extreme indices, tropical and extratropical storms, monsoons, ENSO, severe storm environments, emergence of change signals, and energy production. They show that the CORDEX-CORE EXP-I ensemble can provide downscaled information of unprecedented comprehensiveness to increase understanding of processes relevant for regional climate change and impacts, and to assess the added value of RCMs. The C...
Atmosphere
Projection of Extreme Temperature Events over the Mediterranean and Sahara Using Bias-Corrected CMIP6 Models
Richard Mumo
Climate change continues to increase the intensity, frequency and impacts of weather and climate extremes. This work uses bias-adjusted Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) model datasets to investigate the future changes in temperature extremes over Mediterranean (MED) and Sahara (SAH) regions. The mid- (2041–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) are studied under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Quantile mapping function greatly improved the performance of CMIP6 by reducing the notable biases to match the distribution of observation data, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Results show persistent significant warming throughout the 21st century, increasing with the increase in radiative forcing. The MED will record a higher increase in temperature extremes as compared to SAH. The warming is supported by the projected reduction in cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p), with the reduction in the number of cold nights exceeding co...
Extreme indices of temperature and precipitation in South America: trends and intercomparison of regional climate models
Limbert Torrez
Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provide climate information required for the evaluation of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation at finer scales than their global driving models. As they explicitly resolve the basic conservation and state equations, they solve physics with more detail, conserving teleconnection of larger scales provided by GCMs. In South America (SA), the regional simulations have been historically evaluated principally on climatological aspects, but the representativeness of extremes still needs a deeper assessment. This study aims to analyze three RCMs driven by different GCMs: RegCM4-7, REMO2015, and Eta in the CORDEX SA region with focus on their capacity to reproduce extreme ETCCDI historical indices of daily precipitation and extreme temperature. Rx5day, CDD, TXx, and TNn were evaluated regarding the historical spatio-temporal variability and trends and climate change projections for the 2071–2099 period in the RCP8.5 were provided. The historical behavior of ...
Comparison of multimodel ensembles of global and regional climate models projections for extreme precipitation over four major river basins in southern Africa. Part I: Assessment of the historical simulations
Dieudonne faka
This study assesses the performance of large ensembles of global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models in simulating extreme precipitation over four major river basins (Limpopo, Okavango, Orange and Zambezi) in southern Africa during the period 1983–2005. The ability of the model ensembles to simulate seasonal extreme precipitation indices is assessed using three high-resolution satellite-based datasets. The results show that all ensembles overestimate the annual cycle of mean precipitation over all basins, although the intermodal spread is large, with CORDEX being the closest to the observed values. Generally, all ensembles overestimate the mean and interannual variability of rainy days (RR1), maximum consecutive wet days (CWD), and heavy and very heavy precipitation days (R10mm and R20mm respectively) over all basins during all three seasons. Simple daily rainfall intensity (SDII) and the number of consecutive dry days (CDD) are generally underestimated. The lo...
Research Square (Research Square)
Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 Model Performance in Simulating Historical Precipitation and Temperature in Bangladesh: A Preliminary Study
2021 •
Syewoon Hwang
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
A comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 projections for precipitation to observational data: the case of Northeastern Iran
2020 •
Mohsen Hamidianpour
